Thai Oil predicts surge in jet fuel demand despite slow economy

Image courtesy of Bangkok Publish

Despite forecasted sluggish financial progress, Thai Oil Plc – Thailand’s main oil refinery in phrases of capability – envisages an upturn in demand for refined oil, significantly jet fuel, in the present yr.

Jet fuel consumption is predicted to surge by 24.2%, equating to a median of 16.8 million litres per day (MLD). This represents a substantial improve from the earlier yr’s determine of 13.5 MLD, highlighted Pornpiman Srisatabusaya, petroleum worth chain analytic supervisor at Thai Oil.

This anticipated rise is essentially attributed to an inflow of overseas vacationers in 2024, with figures projected to hit the 35 million mark, a 25% improve from final yr, based on the Tourism Authority of Thailand. To place this into perspective, overseas customer numbers totaled 40 million in 2019.

Along with jet fuel, demand for diesel can also be anticipated to marginally improve by 0.4%, reaching a median of 69.1 MLD, up from 68.9 MLD. Equally, gasoline demand is about to develop by 3.7% to 32.6 MLD from the earlier yr’s 31.5 MLD, as projected by Thai Oil.

Notably, diesel, gasoline, and gasohol – a mix of gasoline and ethanol – are at present subjected to the state worth subsidy programme, reported Bangkok Publish.

Nonetheless, consumption of fuel oil, used predominantly for energy era, is foreseen to dip by 1.7% to five.3 MLD, from 5.4 MLD final yr, owing to lowered demand from energy vegetation. This lower will be traced again to quite a few gas-fired energy vegetation choosing fuel oil as a alternative for costly imported liquefied pure gasoline (LNG) in an try and rein in energy era prices.

Fuel demand

Trying forward, LNG costs are predicted to say no in 2024, main energy plant operators to curtail their utilization of fuel oil.

Within the worldwide enviornment, oil producers and merchants are anticipated to take care of a steadiness between crude oil demand and provide, despite a discount in oil provide in the primary quarter, as per Pornpiman.

Non-Opec nations, together with Canada, the US, Brazil, and Guyana, are set to contribute to further oil manufacturing.

On the consumption entrance, China’s oil utilization is anticipated to lower, largely because of turbulence in its actual property sector, impacting oil demand. In distinction, oil demand in the US is predicted to indicate regular progress, because the Federal Reserve indicated potential rate of interest cuts this yr.

As for the EU, oil demand might expertise modest progress or stay regular, amidst considerations concerning an financial recession.

Lastly, the Worldwide Vitality Company stories that international demand for crude oil is predicted to escalate by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2024.

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