Every college football Saturday features a litany of marquee games.
But the two biggest games this Saturday involve the top three Pac-12 teams.
While No. 8 Oregon and No. 7 Washington face off in Seattle, No. 10 USC battles No. 21 Notre Dame in South Bend.
Caleb Williams’ Trojans will try to keep their season alive, while Sam Hartman’s Irish are attempting to recover from two losses in their past three games.
As a betting man, I think this is an excellent buy-low spot for Notre Dame in a solid situational spot.
Meanwhile, I can’t trust USC’s defense.
Let’s discuss why I’m betting on Notre Dame to pull out a colossal win here.
USC vs. Notre Dame Prediction
The Trojans are off consecutive emotional, underwhelming victories, including scraping by Arizona last week in overtime.
Per CollegeFootballData, the Wildcats had a 72% post-game win expectancy in the battle.
Arizona out-gained USC by 150 total yards (506 to 365), had possession for nearly 12 more minutes (36 to 24), and generated five more first downs (28 to 23).
Arizona also generated more Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play (.24 to .21) and had a higher Success Rate (51% to 46%).
It was the same story in Week 5 against Colorado.
While USC had a 61% post-game win expectancy, the Buffaloes had 60 more yards, six more first downs, a higher EPA per Play and a higher Success Rate.
While Shedeur Sanders’ furious late-game comeback fell short, it showed how vulnerable USC is.
The Trojans barely squeaked by against two lackluster college football teams. Arizona ranks 39th in SP+, and Colorado ranks 80th.
They’re 6-0, and their quarterback is second in the Heisman Trophy odds market, but it’s been far from pretty.
Not to mention, the Trojans have played the 111th-hardest schedule in FBS, per Power Rankings Guru.
So, it’s the perfect time to sell high on an overvalued Trojans team coming off consecutive “lucky” wins, especially now that they’re facing a step-up in competition.
Meanwhile, we can buy low on Notre Dame following a few horrific losses.
There’s no reason the Irish should’ve lost to Ohio State. ND had a 96% post-game win expectancy, generating a 47% Success Rate (77th percentile) while holding OSU to a 33% Success Rate (33rd percentile).
The loss to Louisville was legit.
The Cardinals outplayed the Irish.
But Notre Dame was in a brutal situational spot, playing their second consecutive road game while looking ahead to this monster matchup.
The Irish are undervalued following those flukey losses.
They’re also back in South Bend and have two bye weeks over the next month, so they can empty the clip knowing some rest is on the way.
It’s an excellent time to buy low on the Irish.
I also think Notre Dame has the schematic advantage here.
The Trojans’ vulnerability lies with their defense.
While USC returned nine starters from last season, this more experienced unit hasn’t improved.
The Trojans are 80th nationally in scoring defense (27 PPG allowed) and 115th EPA per Play allowed (0.10).
A big problem is tackling, as the Trojans rank 111th in Pro Football Focus’s Tackling grades.
That means opponents can rip off significant gains in the second and third levels of the defense. Predictably, USC ranks 122nd in Explosiveness allowed.
So, while Lincoln Riley’s offense is the best in college football, his defense continues to let him down week in and week out.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame is a well-rounded squad.
Hartman is an excellent, experienced quarterback.
The Irish have an elite offensive line, led by future NFL right tackle Joe Alt, and a solid ground game spearheaded by running back Audric Estime.
They’re fifth in EPA per Play and should have no problem exploiting this soft USC defense.
Conversely, the Irish could slow down the Trojans’ elite offense. Led by linebacker JD Bertrand, they’re 15th nationally in Success Rate allowed and fourth in EPA per Play allowed.
Betting on College Football?
As alluded to, USC has played a cupcake schedule. The Trojans have yet to play a top-70 SP+ defense, and they’ve played three sub-100 SP+ defenses.
For context, Notre Dame’s defense ranks 10th in SP+’s ratings.
Again, this will be USC’s toughest test yet, and the offense could see a significant decrease in efficiency against an elite stop unit.
So, to recap:
I’m selling high on USC while buying low on Notre Dame. The Irish are a well-rounded squad, while the Trojans’ defense is lifeless.
I think the Irish have the motivational, off-the-field advantages and the on-the-field ones.
This is a great spot to bet on Notre Dame, and I’m buying the Irish at -3 (-110) or better.
USC vs. Notre Dame Pick
Notre Dame -2.5 (-110) | Play to -3 (-110)
